Chance: Demographics & People
315 people call Chance home, in 155 households. Population grew 8.2% from 291 (2022) to 315 (2024). Median age 58.5 years. (20.6y older than Adair County; 23.3y older than Oklahoma). Children under 18 are 21% of the population. Population is 60% White (non-Hispanic) and 1% Hispanic or Latino. 52% of households are family-led. County is gaining 402 residents per year (2022-2023). County health: 44% adult obesity, 26% smoke.
- 2.0 people per household (vs Oklahoma avg 2.6).
- 48% non-family households (singles, roommates) (vs Oklahoma 39%).
- 71 dependents per 100 working-age (youth + seniors / 18-64) (vs Oklahoma 67).
Population & Trend
Population grew 8.2% from 291 (2022) to 315 (2024) — about 13.8× the recent U.S. annual rate of ~0.6%/yr. Estimated 2026 population: ~341 (extrapolated at 4.1%/yr trend). Census Bureau Vintage estimate: 379.
| Census data vintage | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Population | 19,495 people |
| Annual growth rate · Population change | 8.2% |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2022) | 291 |
| Annual growth rate · Population (2024) | 315 |
| Annual growth rate · Population growing | Yes |
| Annual growth rate · Trend category | booming |
| Population | 315 people (vs Oklahoma 63,420) |
| Population Estimate | 379 |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023, Table B01003 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Age Distribution
Median age 58.5y is 19.6 years older than the U.S. median (38.9y). Children under 18 make up 21% — below the U.S. share of ~22%.
| Age Summary · Median age | 58.5 years (vs Oklahoma 35.2y) |
|---|---|
| Age Summary · Children Pct | 20.6% |
| Age Summary · Character | retirement community |
| Age Summary · Total Pop | 315 |
| Age Summary · Under 18 | 65 |
| Age Summary · 18 To 34 | 17.0× |
| Age Summary · 35 To 64 | 167.0× |
| Age Summary · 65 Plus | 66 |
| Population under 18 | 65 |
| Median age | 58.5 years (vs Oklahoma 35.2y) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2024 — place-level B01001 query · Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-29
Race, Ethnicity & Diversity
Of 315 residents, race / ethnicity breaks down by Census ACS counts (a person can identify with one or more groups).
| White residents | 167 |
|---|---|
| Hispanic or Latino residents | 2 |
| Diversity Index · Simpson Index | 50.4% |
| Diversity Index · Interpretation | moderately diverse |
| Hispanic or Latino population | 1.0% (vs Oklahoma 12.3%) |
| White (non-Hispanic) population | 60.0% (vs Oklahoma 57.8%) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Ancestry
Self-reported ancestry from Census ACS — what residents report as their ethnic origin, separate from race. Counts can exceed population because people can list multiple ancestries.
Top (6)
Citizenship & Origin
Where residents were born and their citizenship status (Census ACS).
| Residents born in this state | 99 |
|---|---|
| Residents born in another state | 216 |
| Share born in this state | 31.4% |
| Share born in another state | 68.6% |
| Native-born U.S. citizens | 68.6% |
| Total foreign-born residents | 463 |
Households & Family Composition
155 households. Averaging 1.8 people each — smaller than the U.S. average of 2.5. 52% are family households — below the U.S. share of ~65%. Of 75 families, 29% are married couples with children.
| Children under 18 | 50 |
|---|---|
| Total families | 75 |
| Married couples with children | 22 |
| Average household size | 1.81 |
| Grandparents living with grandchildren | 47 |
| Grandparents responsible for grandchildren | 27 |
| Family households | 80 households (vs Oklahoma 16,590) |
| Households that are families | 51.6% (vs Oklahoma 61.1%) |
| Total households | 155 households (vs Oklahoma 23,671) |
Sources: Census ACS 5-Year 2023 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Residential Stability & Migration
How long residents have lived here and where they came from. 1.0% moved within the county in the past year — the U.S. baseline is roughly 8–10%. The surrounding county is gaining 402 residents per year on net (IRS migration data).
| Moved within the county (past year) | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| Migration · People moving in (annual) | 17,927 |
| Migration · People moving out (annual) | 17,525 |
| Migration · Net migration (in − out) | 402 |
| Migration · Population growing | Yes |
| Migration · Year | 2022-2023 |
Sources: IRS SOI Migration 2021-2022 · Refreshed 2026-04-12
Disability
Census ACS measures self-reported functional limitations — vision, hearing, mobility, cognitive, self-care, or independent-living. The U.S. baseline disability rate is about 12–13%; rates trend higher with median age.
| Residents with a disability | 18 |
|---|---|
| Disability rate | 5.7% |
Other
| Congressional District · District | 2 |
|---|---|
| Congressional District · Formatted | OK-02 |
| Congressional District · Congress | 118th |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Fips | 40001 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · State Fips | 40 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County Fips | 001 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · County | Adair |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Birth Rate | 48.7% |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Lower Ci | 41.60 |
| Cdc Birth Rate · Upper Ci | 56.50 |
| Cdc Mortality · Fips | 40001 |
| Cdc Mortality · County | Adair County |
| Cdc Mortality · Urban Rural | Noncore |
| Cdc Mortality · Total Deaths 2020 2023 | 653 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Fips | 40001 |
| Cdc Vaccination · County | Adair County |
| Cdc Vaccination · Dose1 Pop Pct | 56.5% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Series Complete Pct | 38.6% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Booster Pct | 34.6% |
| Cdc Vaccination · Population 2019 | 22,194 |
| Cdc Vaccination · Metro Status | Non-metro |
| Family Score · Score | 9.00 |
| Family Score · Schools | 16 |
| Family Score · Children Pct | 20.6% |
| Family Score · Rating | excellent |
| Town Summary · Key Facts | population 315, booming, retirement community, high crime, heritage: German/English |
| Town Summary · Population | 315 people (vs Oklahoma 63,420) |
| Town Summary · County | Adair County |
Sources: Census place-to-CD118 crosswalk (place_fips) · federal dataset cascade